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Schrödinger's cat (1935) presents a cat this is indeterminately alive or lifeless, depending on a random quantum event. It illustrates the counterintuitive implications of Bohr's Copenhagen interpretation when implemented to everyday items.
A idea experiment is a hypothetical situation by which a hypothesis, concept, or concept is laid out for the purpose of considering through its consequences.
Johann Witt-Hansen established that Hans Christian Ørsted used to be the primary to use the German time period Gedankenexperiment (lit. thought experiment) circa 1812. Ørsted was once also the first to make use of the an identical time period Gedankenversuch in 1820.
Much later, Ernst Mach used the term Gedankenexperiment in a different way, to indicate solely the imaginary conduct of an actual experiment that would be therefore performed as an actual bodily experiment by way of his scholars. Physical and psychological experimentation could then be contrasted: Mach asked his scholars to offer him with explanations on every occasion the results from their next, actual, physical experiment differed from the ones of their prior, imaginary experiment.
The English time period concept experiment was coined (as a calque) from Mach's Gedankenexperiment, and it first gave the impression within the 1897 English translation of certainly one of Mach's papers. Prior to its emergence, the activity of posing hypothetical questions that hired subjunctive reasoning had existed for a very long time (for each scientists and philosophers). However, people had no manner of categorizing it or talking about it. This is helping to give an explanation for the extremely extensive and numerous vary of the appliance of the term "thought experiment" once it had been offered into English.
The common purpose of a thought experiment is to explore the possible consequences of the principle in query:
"A thought experiment is a device with which one performs an intentional, structured process of intellectual deliberation in order to speculate, within a specifiable problem domain, about potential consequents (or antecedents) for a designated antecedent (or consequent)" (Yeates, 2004, p. 150).
Given the structure of the experiment, it is probably not conceivable to perform it, and even supposing it may well be performed, there needn't be an intention to accomplish it.
Examples of thought experiments include Schrödinger's cat, illustrating quantum indeterminacy during the manipulation of a perfectly sealed surroundings and a tiny little bit of radioactive substance, and Maxwell's demon, which attempts to display the facility of a hypothetical finite being to violate the 2nd legislation of thermodynamics.
The ancient Greek deiknymi (δείκνυμι), or concept experiment, "was the most ancient pattern of mathematical proof", and existed prior to Euclidean mathematics, where the emphasis was on the conceptual, somewhat than at the experimental part of a thought-experiment.
Perhaps the key experiment in the history of modern science is Galileo's demonstration that falling gadgets must fall at the same rate regardless of their masses. This is broadly idea to were a straightforward bodily demonstration, involving mountain climbing up the Leaning Tower of Pisa and losing two heavy weights off it, while if truth be told, it was once a logical demonstration, using the 'idea experiment' method. The 'experiment' is described by way of Galileo in Discorsi e dimostrazioni matematiche (1638) (actually, 'Discourses and Mathematical Demonstrations') thus:
Salviati. If then we take two bodies whose herbal speeds are other, it is clear that on uniting the two, the extra speedy one can be partially retarded by the slower, and the slower shall be somewhat hastened by means of the swifter. Do you no longer believe me on this opinion?
Simplicio. You are unquestionably correct.
Salviati. But if this is true, and if a large stone moves with a speed of, say, 8 whilst a smaller strikes with a velocity of four, then when they're united, the gadget will move with a pace lower than 8; but the two stones when tied in combination make a stone better than that which earlier than moved with a velocity of 8. Hence the heavier body strikes with much less speed than the lighter; an impact which is opposite on your supposition. Thus you notice how, from your assumption that the heavier frame moves extra hastily than the lighter one, I infer that the heavier frame moves extra slowly.
Although the extract does not put across the class and power of the 'demonstration' extraordinarily properly, it's clear that this can be a 'idea' experiment, relatively than a sensible one. Strange then, as Cohen says, that philosophers and scientists alike refuse to recognize either Galileo in particular, or the idea experiment method normally for its pivotal function in both science and philosophy. (The exception proves the guideline — the iconoclastic thinker of science, Paul Feyerabend, has also seen this methodological prejudice.) Instead, many philosophers like to imagine 'Thought Experiments' to be merely the use of a hypothetical situation to lend a hand understand the way things are.
Thought experiments, which might be well-structured, well-defined hypothetical questions that make use of subjunctive reasoning (irrealis moods) – "What might happen (or, what might have happened) if . . . " – have been used to pose questions in philosophy a minimum of since Greek antiquity, some pre-dating Socrates. In physics and other sciences many idea experiments date from the 19th and particularly the 20 th Century, but examples will also be discovered at least as early as Galileo.
In idea experiments we achieve new information by rearranging or reorganizing already known empirical data in a new way and drawing new (a priori) inferences from them or via having a look at these knowledge from a different and unusual perspective. In Galileo's concept experiment, as an example, the rearrangement of empirical experience consists in the original thought of mixing our bodies of different weight.
Thought experiments had been utilized in philosophy (particularly ethics), physics, and other fields (corresponding to cognitive psychology, historical past, political science, economics, social psychology, legislation, organizational studies, advertising and marketing, and epidemiology). In law, the synonym "hypothetical" is continuously used for such experiments.
Regardless in their supposed goal, all idea experiments display a patterned way of thinking this is designed to permit us to provide an explanation for, expect and control occasions in a greater and extra productive way.
In phrases of their theoretical penalties, thought experiments usually:
problem (and even refute) a prevailing concept, regularly involving the tool known as reductio ad absurdum, (as in Galileo's original argument, a proof by way of contradiction),
confirm a prevailing idea,
establish a brand new concept, or
concurrently refute a prevailing concept and determine a brand new concept through a strategy of mutual exclusionPractical applications
Thought experiments can produce some very important and different outlooks on previously unknown or unaccepted theories. However, they will make those theories themselves irrelevant, and could possibly create new problems which might be just as tough, or most likely more difficult to unravel.
In terms of their sensible application, thought experiments are most often created to:
challenge the existing established order (which includes activities similar to correcting incorrect information (or misapprehension), determine flaws in the argument(s) introduced, to preserve (for the long-term) objectively established fact, and to refute particular assertions that some explicit factor is permissible, forbidden, known, believed, conceivable, or vital);
extrapolate beyond (or interpolate within) the limits of already established reality;
are expecting and forecast the (differently) indefinite and unknowable future;
explain the beyond;
the retrodiction, postdiction and hindcasting of the (otherwise) indefinite and unknowable past;
facilitate determination making, selection and strategy selection;
solve issues, and generate concepts;
transfer present (frequently insoluble) problems into every other, extra helpful and more productive drawback space (e.g.: functional fixedness);
attribute causation, preventability, blame and responsibility for particular results;
assess culpability and compensatory damages in social and legal contexts;
make certain the repeat of past good fortune; or
read about the extent to which beyond occasions might have took place in a different way.
be sure that the (destiny) avoidance of beyond failures
Temporal representation of a prefactual concept experiment.
Generally speaking, there are seven forms of thought experiments in which one reasons from causes to results, or results to causes:
Prefactual (prior to the fact) concept experiments — the time period prefactual was coined through Lawrence J. Sanna in 1998 — speculate on imaginable future outcomes, given the present, and ask "What will be the outcome if event E occurs?"
Temporal illustration of a counterfactual idea experiment.
Counterfactual (opposite to established truth) thought experiments — the time period counterfactual used to be coined by means of Nelson Goodman in 1947, extending Roderick Chisholm's (1946) notion of a "contrary-to-fact conditional" — speculate on the conceivable results of a special past; and ask "What might have happened if A had happened instead of B?" (e.g., "If Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz had cooperated with each other, what would mathematics look like today?").
The learn about of counterfactual speculation has an increasing number of engaged the pastime of students in a wide range of domain names such as philosophy, psychology, cognitive psychology, history, political science, economics, social psychology, legislation, organizational concept, advertising, and epidemiology.
Temporal representation of a semifactual thought experiment.
Semifactual concept experiments — the time period semifactual was coined by way of Nelson Goodman in 1947 — speculate on the extent to which issues might have remained the similar, despite there being a different past; and asks the question Even regardless that X happened as a substitute of E, would Y have still befell? (e.g., Even if the goalie had moved left, moderately than correct, may just he have intercepted a ball that was once touring at the sort of speed?).
Semifactual speculations are an important a part of scientific medication.
Temporal representation of prediction, forecasting and nowcasting.
The process of prediction attempts to venture the circumstances of the present into the future. According to David Sarewitz and Roger Pielke (1999, p123), clinical prediction takes two bureaucracy:
"The elucidation of invariant — and therefore predictive — principles of nature"; and
"[Using] suites of observational data and sophisticated numerical models in an effort to foretell the behavior or evolution of complex phenomena".
Although they perform different social and medical purposes, the one difference between the qualitatively similar actions of predicting, forecasting, and nowcasting is the distance of the speculated destiny from the existing second occupied by way of the user. Whilst the activity of nowcasting, defined as "a detailed description of the current weather along with forecasts obtained by extrapolation up to 2 hours ahead", is largely fascinated by describing the present scenario, it is common practice to increase the term "to cover very-short-range forecasting up to 12 hours ahead" (Browning, 1982, p.ix).
Temporal representation of hindcasting.
The job of hindcasting comes to operating a forecast model after an tournament has happened in order to test whether or not the type's simulation is legitimate.
In 2003, Dake Chen and his colleagues "trained" a computer the usage of the information of the surface temperature of the oceans from the closing two decades. Then, the use of data that were accrued on the surface temperature of the oceans for the duration 1857 to 2003, they went thru a hindcasting workout and discovered that their simulation not handiest appropriately predicted each and every El Niño match for the final 148 years, it also known the (up to 2 years) looming foreshadow of each single a type of El Niño occasions.
Temporal representation of retrodiction or postdiction.
The activity of retrodiction (or postdiction) comes to shifting backwards in time, step-by-step, in as many phases as are regarded as important, from the existing into the speculated beyond to determine the ultimate reason for a specific match (e.g., opposite engineering and forensics).
Given that retrodiction is a process during which "past observations, events and data are used as evidence to infer the process(es) the produced them" and that prognosis "involve[s] going from visible effects such as symptoms, signs and the like to their prior causes", the very important balance between prediction and retrodiction might be characterized as:
retrodiction : analysis :: prediction : diagnosis
regardless of whether the diagnosis is of the process the disease within the absence of treatment, or of the appliance of a specific remedy routine to a specific dysfunction in a particular patient.
Temporal representation of backcasting.
The task of backcasting — the term backcasting used to be coined by means of John Robinson in 1982 — involves establishing the outline of a very particular and really particular destiny scenario. It then comes to an imaginary shifting backwards in time, step-by-step, in as many phases as are thought to be essential, from the longer term to the present to reveal the mechanism through which that particular specified future may well be attained from the prevailing.
Backcasting is not interested in predicting the long run:
The major distinguishing function of backcasting analyses is the fear, now not with most probably energy futures, however with how fascinating futures will also be attained. It is thus explicitly normative, involving 'operating backwards' from a specific future end-point to the present to resolve what coverage measures can be required to succeed in that future.
According to Jansen (1994, p. 503:
Within the framework of technological construction, "forecasting" considerations the extrapolation of trends towards the longer term and the exploration of achievements that can be realized via technology in the long term. Conversely, the reasoning in the back of "backcasting" is: on the basis of an interconnecting image of calls for generation should meet one day — "sustainability criteria" — to direct and resolve the process that era building should take and possibly additionally the pace at which this development procedure should take effect.
Backcasting [is] both crucial support in determining the direction technology construction must take and in specifying the goals to be set for this purpose. As such, backcasting is an ideal search towards figuring out the nature and scope of the technological challenge posed by sustainable development, and it may possibly thus serve to direct the quest procedure towards new — sustainable — generation.
In philosophy, a idea experiment usually gifts an imagined state of affairs with the purpose of eliciting an intuitive or reasoned response about the best way things are within the concept experiment. (Philosophers might also supplement their thought experiments with theoretical reasoning designed to fortify the required intuitive response.) The situation will in most cases be designed to target a specific philosophical perception, corresponding to morality, or the nature of the mind or linguistic reference. The reaction to the imagined situation is meant to tell us concerning the nature of that notion in any scenario, actual or imagined.
For instance, a idea experiment would possibly provide a scenario wherein an agent deliberately kills an blameless for the benefit of others. Here, the relevant question isn't whether or not the motion is ethical or now not, but more widely whether an ethical idea is correct that claims morality is made up our minds solely through an motion's consequences (See Consequentialism). John Searle imagines a man in a locked room who receives written sentences in Chinese, and returns written sentences in Chinese, in keeping with a sophisticated instruction handbook. Here, the related question isn't whether or not the person understands Chinese, but extra widely, whether a functionalist idea of mind is proper.
It is generally was hoping that there's common settlement about the intuitions that a concept experiment elicits. (Hence, in assessing their very own concept experiments, philosophers might enchantment to "what we should say," or some such locution.) A a success idea experiment might be one during which intuitions about it are widely shared. But continuously, philosophers range of their intuitions about the situation.
Other philosophical uses of imagined scenarios arguably are concept experiments also. In one use of eventualities, philosophers might imagine persons in a selected state of affairs (possibly ourselves), and ask what they'd do.
For instance, in the veil of lack of know-how, John Rawls asks us to consider a group of persons in a situation where they know nothing about themselves, and are charged with devising a social or political group. The use of the state of nature to consider the origins of government, as via Thomas Hobbes and John Locke, can be considered a idea experiment. Søren Kierkegaard explored the conceivable moral and religious implications of Abraham's binding of Isaac in Fear and Trembling. Similarly, Friedrich Nietzsche, in On the Genealogy of Morals, speculated about the historic building of Judeo-Christian morality, with the intent of questioning its legitimacy.
An early written idea experiment was Plato's allegory of the cave. Another historic concept experiment was once Avicenna's "Floating Man" idea experiment in the 11th century. He requested his readers to believe themselves suspended in the air isolated from all sensations to be able to reveal human self-awareness and self-consciousness, and the substantiality of the soul.
In many idea experiments, the scenario can be nomologically conceivable, or conceivable consistent with the rules of nature. John Searle's Chinese room is nomologically imaginable.
Some concept experiments provide eventualities that don't seem to be nomologically possible. In his Twin Earth concept experiment, Hilary Putnam asks us to believe a situation in which there's a substance with all the observable houses of water (e.g., taste, color, boiling point), however is chemically other from water. It has been argued that this thought experiment isn't nomologically imaginable, even though it may be imaginable in any other sense, comparable to metaphysical possibility. It is arguable whether the nomological impossibility of a concept experiment renders intuitions about it moot.
In some cases, the hypothetical state of affairs could be regarded as metaphysically unimaginable, or unattainable in any sense in any respect. David Chalmers says that we will believe that there are zombies, or persons who're physically identical to us in each and every manner however who lack awareness. This is meant to turn that physicalism is false. However, some argue that zombies are impossible: we will not more imagine a zombie than we will be able to consider that 1+1=3. Others have claimed that the conceivability of a situation would possibly not entail its chance.
Interactive idea experiments in virtual environments
The philosophical paintings of Stefano Gualeni makes a speciality of using virtual worlds to materialize concept experiments and to playfully negotiate philosophical concepts. His arguments have been initially offered in his 2015 e-book Virtual Worlds as Philosophical Tools.
Gualeni's argument is that the history of philosophy has, till just lately, simply been the history of written idea, and digital media can complement and enrich the limited and almost exclusively linguistic way to philosophical concept. He considers digital worlds to be philosophically viable and positive in contexts like those of idea experiments, when the recipients of a certain philosophical perception or point of view are expected to objectively check and evaluate different imaginable lessons of action, or in circumstances the place they're faced with interrogatives relating to non-actual or non-human phenomenologies.
Among the most seen concept experiments designed by means of Stefano Gualeni:
Something Something Soup Something (2017)
Necessary Evil (2013)
Other examples of playful, interactive concept experiments:
The Evolution of Trust (Niki Case, 2017)
We Become what We Behold (Niki Case, 2016)
To Build a Better Mouse Trap (La Molleindustria, 2014)
Parable of the Polygons (Vi Hart & Niki Case, 2014)
Scientists have a tendency to use concept experiments as imaginary, "proxy" experiments prior to an actual, "physical" experiment (Ernst Mach at all times argued that these gedankenexperiments have been "a necessary precondition for physical experiment"). In those cases, the result of the "proxy" experiment will ceaselessly be so clear that there might be no want to conduct a bodily experiment in any respect.
Scientists also use idea experiments when particular physical experiments are unimaginable to habits (Carl Gustav Hempel categorized these varieties of experiment "theoretical experiments-in-imagination"), comparable to Einstein's idea experiment of chasing a light beam, leading to important relativity. This is a novel use of a scientific thought experiment, in that it used to be by no means carried out, however led to a a success principle, confirmed via other empirical means.
The first characteristic pattern that thought experiments display is their orientation
in time. They are both:
Antefactual speculations: experiments that speculate about what would possibly have took place prior to a selected, designated event, or
Postfactual speculations: experiments that speculate about what would possibly occur next to (or consequent upon) a specific, designated match.
The 2d feature pattern is their motion in time in terms of "the present
moment standpoint" of the individual acting the experiment; namely, with regards to:
Their temporal course: are they past-oriented or future-oriented?
Their temporal sense:
(a) in terms of past-oriented idea experiments, are they analyzing the consequences of temporal "movement" from the present to the past, or from the beyond to the present? or,
(b) in relation to future-oriented idea experiments, are they examining the effects of temporal "movement" from the existing to the long run, or from the long run to the current?
Thought experiments had been utilized in a number of fields, including philosophy, law, physics, and arithmetic. In philosophy they have been used at least since classical antiquity, some pre-dating Socrates. In law, they were widely recognized to Roman attorneys quoted within the Digest. In physics and different sciences, notable concept experiments date from the 19th and especially the twentieth century, however examples will also be discovered at least as early as Galileo.
Relation to actual experiments
The relation to actual experiments can be relatively complex, as will also be observed once more from an instance going back to Albert Einstein. In 1935, with two coworkers, he published a paper on a newly created matter called later the EPR effect (EPR paradox). In this paper, starting from certain philosophical assumptions, at the basis of a rigorous analysis of a certain, difficult, but within the meantime assertedly realizable model, he came to the realization that quantum mechanics should be described as "incomplete". Niels Bohr asserted a refutation of Einstein's analysis immediately, and his view prevailed. After some many years, it was once asserted that possible experiments could prove the mistake of the EPR paper. These experiments examined the Bell inequalities published in 1964 in a purely theoretical paper. The above-mentioned EPR philosophical starting assumptions have been thought to be to be falsified by empirical reality (e.g. via the optical actual experiments of Alain Aspect).
Thus thought experiments belong to a theoretical discipline, in most cases to theoretical physics, however frequently to theoretical philosophy. In any case, it must be distinguished from an actual experiment, which belongs naturally to the experimental discipline and has "the final decision on true or not true", no less than in physics.
Braitenberg automobiles (robotics, neural control and sensing programs) (some had been constructed)
Doomsday argument (anthropic idea)
The Lady, or the Tiger? (human nature)
Bell's spaceship paradox (special relativity)
Brownian ratchet (Richard Feynman's "perpetual motion" machine that doesn't violate the second one law and does no work at thermal equilibrium)
Bucket argument – argues that space is absolute, no longer relational
Buttered cat paradox
Elitzur–Vaidman bomb-tester (quantum mechanics)
EPR paradox (quantum mechanics) (varieties of this have been carried out)
Feynman sprinkler (classical mechanics)
Galileo's ship (classical relativity theory) 1632
Galileo's Leaning Tower of Pisa experiment (rebuttal of Aristotelian Gravity)
GHZ experiment (quantum mechanics)
Heisenberg's microscope (quantum mechanics)
Kepler's Dream (trade of viewpoint as make stronger for the Copernican speculation)
Ladder paradox (special relativity)
Maxwell's demon (thermodynamics) 1871
The Monkey and the Hunter (gravitation)
Moving magnet and conductor problem
Newton's cannonball (Newton's regulations of movement)
Popper's experiment (quantum mechanics)
Quantum pseudo telepathy (quantum mechanics)
Quantum suicide (quantum mechanics)
Schrödinger's cat (quantum mechanics)
Sticky bead argument (general relativity)
Renninger negative-result experiment (quantum mechanics)
Twin paradox (particular relativity)
Wheeler's delayed selection experiment (quantum mechanics)
Wigner's friend (quantum mechanics)
Avicenna's Floating Man
Beetle in a box
Bellum omnium contra omnes
Big Book (ethics)
Brain-in-a-vat (epistemology, philosophy of mind)
Changing places (reflexive monism, philosophy of mind)
China brain (physicalism, philosophy of mind)
Chinese room (philosophy of mind, synthetic intelligence, cognitive science)
Coherence (philosophical playing strategy)
Condillac's Statue (epistemology)
Experience gadget (ethics)
Gettier downside (epistemology)
Ḥayy ibn Yaqẓān (epistemology)
Hilary Putnam's Twin Earth concept experiment within the philosophy of language and philosophy of thoughts
If a tree falls in a forest
Kavka's toxin puzzle
Mary's room (philosophy of thoughts)
Molyneux's Problem (admittedly, this oscillated between empirical and a-priori overview)
Original position (politics)
Philosophical zombie (philosophy of thoughts, synthetic intelligence, cognitive science)
Plank of Carneades
Ship of Theseus, The (thought of identity)
Simulated reality (philosophy, computer science, cognitive science)
Social contract theories
Survival lottery, The (ethics)
Swamp man (private id, philosophy of mind)
Shoemaker's "Time Without Change" (metaphysics)
Ticking time bomb situation (ethics)
The Transparent eyeball
Trolley drawback (ethics)
The Violinist (ethics)
Utility monster (ethics)
Zeno's paradoxes (classical Greek problems of the limitless)
Luis's idea (ethics)
Balls and vase drawback (infinity and cardinality)
Gabriel's Horn (infinity)
Hilbert's paradox of the Grand Hotel (infinity)
Infinite monkey theorem (chance)
Lottery paradox (probability)
Sleeping attractiveness paradox (chance)
Rotating locomotion in living systemsComputer science
Halting problem (limits of computability)
Turing gadget (limits of computability)
Two Generals' Problem
Dining Philosophers (laptop science)
Broken window fallacy (regulation of accidental consequences, alternative value)
Alternate historical past (fiction)
Ding an sich
Einstein's thought experiments
Scenario making plans
Scenario take a look at
^ "[C]onjectures or hypotheses ... are really to be regarded as thought "experiments" through which we wish to discover whether something can be explained by a specific assumption in connection with other natural laws." —Hans Christian Ørsted("First Introduction to General Physics" ¶16-¶18, a part of a sequence of public lectures on the University of Copenhagen. Copenhagen 1811, in Danish, printed by way of Johan Frederik Schulz. In Kirstine Meyer's 1920 version of Ørsted's works, vol.III pp. 151-190. ) "First Introduction to Physics: the Spirit, Meaning, and Goal of Natural Science". Reprinted in German in 1822, Schweigger's Journal für Chemie und Physik 36, pp. 458–488, as translated in Ørsted 1997, pp. 296–298
^ Witt-Hansen (1976). Although Experiment is a German phrase, it is derived from Latin. The synonym Versuch has purely Germanic roots.
^ Mach, Ernst (1883), The Science of Mechanics (sixth edition, translated by means of Thomas J. McCormack), LaSalle, Illinois: Open Court, 1960. pp. 32-41, 159-62.
^ Mach, Ernst (1897), "On Thought Experiments", in Knowledge and Error (translated through Thomas J. McCormack and Paul Foulkes), Dordrecht Holland: Reidel, 1976, pp. 134-47.
^ Szábo, Árpád. (1958) " 'Deiknymi' als Mathematischer Terminus fur 'Beweisen' ", Maia N.S. 10 pp. 1–26 as cited through Imre Lakatos (1976) in Proofs and Refutations p.9. (John Worrall and Elie Zahar, eds.) Cambridge University Press .mw-parser-output cite.quotationfont-style:inherit.mw-parser-output .quotation qquotes:"\"""\"""'""'".mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,.mw-parser-output .quotation .cs1-lock-free abackground:linear-gradient(transparent,clear),url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")appropriate 0.1em middle/9px no-repeat.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-registration abackground:linear-gradient(transparent,transparent),url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em heart/9px no-repeat.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-subscription abackground:linear-gradient(transparent,clear),url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")appropriate 0.1em heart/9px no-repeat.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registrationcolour:#555.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription span,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration spanborder-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon abackground:linear-gradient(clear,clear),url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")correct 0.1em center/12px no-repeat.mw-parser-output code.cs1-codecolour:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-errorshow:none;font-size:100%.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-errorfont-size:100%.mw-parser-output .cs1-maintdisplay:none;colour:#33aa33;margin-left:0.3em.mw-parser-output .cs1-formatfont-size:95%.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-leftpadding-left:0.2em.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-rightpadding-right:0.2em.mw-parser-output .quotation .mw-selflinkfont-weight:inheritISBN 0-521-21078-X. The English translation of the name of Szábo's article is "'Deiknymi' as a mathematical expression for 'to prove'", as translated by András Máté Archived 2012-04-25 at the Wayback Machine, p.285
^ Cohen, Martin, "Wittgenstein's Beetle and Other Classic Thought Experiments", Blackwell, (Oxford), 2005, pp. 55–56.
^ "Galileo on Aristotle and Acceleration". Retrieved 2008-05-24.
^ See, for instance, Paul Feyerabend, 'Against Method', Verso (1993)
^ Rescher, N. (1991), "Thought Experiment in Pre-Socratic Philosophy", in Horowitz, T.; Massey, G.J. (eds.), Thought Experiments in Science and Philosophy, Rowman & Littlefield, (Savage), pp. 31–41.
^ Brendal, Elke, "Intuition Pumps and the Proper Use of Thought Experiments". Dialectica. V.58, Issue 1, p 89–108, March 2004
^ Taken from Yeates, 2004, p.143.
^ See Yeates, 2004, pp.138-159.
^ Sanna, L.J., "Defensive Pessimism and Optimism: The Bitter-Sweet Influence of Mood on Performance and Prefactual and Counterfactual Thinking", Cognition and Emotion, Vol.12, No.5, (September 1998), pp.635-665. (Sanna used the term prefactual to distinguish these forms of concept experiment from each semifactuals and counterfactuals.)
^ a b Taken from Yeates, 2004, p.144.
^ a b Goodman, N., "The Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals", The Journal of Philosophy, Vol.44, No.5, (27 February 1947), pp.113-128.
^ Chisholm, R.M., "The Contrary-to-Fact Conditional", Mind, Vol.55, No.220, (October 1946), pp.289-307.
^ Roger Penrose (Shadows of the Mind: A Search for the Missing Science of Consciousness, Oxford University Press, (Oxford),1994, p.240) considers counterfactuals to be "things that might have happened, although they did not in fact happen".
^ In 1748, when defining causation, David Hume referred to a counterfactual case: "…we may define a cause to be an object, followed by another, and where all objects, similar to the first, are followed by objects similar to the second. Or in other words, where, if the first object had not been, the second never had existed …" (Hume, D. (Beauchamp, T.L., ed.), An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, Oxford University Press, (Oxford), 1999, (7), p.146.)
^ Goodman, N., "The Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals", The Journal of Philosophy, Vol.44, No.5, (27 February 1947), pp.113-128; Brown, R, & Watling, J., "Counterfactual Conditionals", Mind, Vol.61, No.242, (April 1952), pp.222-233; Parry, W.T., "Reëxamination of the Problem of Counterfactual Conditionals", The Journal of Philosophy, Vol.54, No.4, (14 February 1957), pp.85-94; Cooley, J.C., "Professor Goodman's Fact, Fiction, & Forecast", The Journal of Philosophy, Vol.54, No.10, (9 May 1957), pp.293-311; Goodman, N., "Parry on Counterfactuals", The Journal of Philosophy, Vol.54, No.14, (4 July 1957), pp.442-445; Goodman, N., "Reply to an Adverse Ally", The Journal of Philosophy, Vol.54, No.17, (15 August 1957), pp.531-535; Lewis, D., Counterfactuals, Basil Blackwell, (Oxford), 1973, and so on.
^ Fillenbaum, S., "Information Amplified: Memory for Counterfactual Conditionals", Journal of Experimental Psychology, Vol.102, No.1, (January 1974), pp.44-49; Crawford, M.T. & McCrea, S.M., "When Mutations meet Motivations: Attitude Biases in Counterfactual Thought", Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Vol.40, No.1, (January 2004), pp.65-74, etc.
^ Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A., "The Simulation Heuristic", pp.201-208 in Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A. (eds), Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, (Cambridge), 1982; Sherman, S.J. & McConnell, A.R., "Dysfunctional Implications of Counterfactual Thinking: When Alternatives to reality Fail Us", pp.199-231 in Roese, N.J. & Olson, J.M. (eds.), What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, (Mahwah), 1995;Nasco, S.A. & Marsh, Okay.L., "Gaining Control Through Counterfactual Thinking", Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Vol.25, No.5, (May 1999), pp.556-568; McCloy, R. & Byrne, R.M.J., "Counterfactual Thinking About Controllable Events", Memory and Cognition, Vol.28, No.6, (September 2000), pp.1071-1078; Byrne, R.M.J., "Mental Models and Counterfactual Thoughts About What Might Have Been", Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Vol.6, No.10, (October 2002), pp.426-431; Thompson, V.A. & Byrne, R.M.J., "Reasoning Counterfactually: Making Inferences About Things That Didn't Happen", Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, Vol.28, No.6, (November 2002), pp.1154-1170, etc.
^ Greenberg, M. (ed.), The Way It Wasn't: Great Science Fiction Stories of Alternate History, Citadel Twilight, (New York), 1996; Dozois, G. & Schmidt, W. (eds.), Roads Not Taken: Tales of Alternative History, The Ballantine Publishing Group, (New York), 1998; Sylvan, D. & Majeski, S., "A Methodology for the Study of Historical Counterfactuals", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.42, No.1, (March 1998), pp.79-108; Ferguson, N., (ed.), Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals, Basic Books, (New York), 1999; Cowley, R. (ed.), What If?: The World's Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might have Been, Berkley Books, (New York), 2000; Cowley, R. (ed.), What If? 2: Eminent Historians Imagine What Might have Been, G.P. Putnam's Sons, (New York), 2001, and so forth.
^ Fearon, J.D., "Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science", World Politics, Vol.43, No.2, (January 1991), pp.169-195; Tetlock, P.E. & Belkin, A. (eds.), Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, Princeton University Press, (Princeton), 1996; Lebow, R.N., "What's so Different about a Counterfactual?", World Politics, Vol.52, No.4, (July 2000), pp.550-585; Chwieroth, J.M., "Counterfactuals and the Study of the American Presidency", Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol.32, No.2, (June 2002), pp.293-327, and so on.
^ Cowan, R. & Foray, R., "Evolutionary Economics and the Counterfactual Threat: On the Nature and Role of Counterfactual History as an Empirical Tool in Economics", Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Vol.12, No.5, (December 2002), pp.539-562, etc.
^ Roese, N.J. & Olson, J.M. (eds.), What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, (Mahwah), 1995; Sanna, L.J., "Defensive Pessimism, Optimism, and Simulating Alternatives: Some Ups and Downs of Prefactual and Counterfactual Thinking", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol.71, No.5, (November 1996), pp1020-1036; Roese, N.J., "Counterfactual Thinking", Psychological Bulletin, Vol.121, No.1, (January 1997), pp.133-148; Sanna, L.J., "Defensive Pessimism and Optimism: The Bitter-Sweet Influence of Mood on Performance and Prefactual and Counterfactual Thinking", Cognition and Emotion, Vol.12, No.5, (September 1998), pp.635-665; Sanna, L.J. & Turley-Ames, K.J., "Counterfactual Intensity", European Journal of Social Psychology, Vol.30, No.2, (March/April 2000), pp.273-296; Sanna, L.J., Parks, C.D., Meier, S., Chang, E.C., Kassin, B.R., Lechter, J.L., Turley-Ames, Ok.J. & Miyake, T.M., "A Game of Inches: Spontaneous Use of Counterfactuals by Broadcasters During Major League Baseball Playoffs", Journal of Applied Social Psychology, Vol.33, No.3, (March 2003), pp.455-475, and so on.
^ Strassfeld, R.N., "If...: Counterfactuals in the Law", George Washington Law Review, Volume 60, No.2, (January 1992), pp.339-416; Spellman, B.A. & Kincannon, A., "The Relation between Counterfactual ("however for") and Causal reasoning: Experimental Findings and Implications for Juror's Decisions", Law and Contemporary Problems, Vol.64, No.4, (Autumn 2001), pp.241-264; Prentice, R.A. & Koehler, J.J., "A Normality Bias in Legal Decision Making", Cornell Law Review, Vol.88, No.3, (March 2003), pp.583-650, etc.
^ Creyer, E.H. & Gürhan, Z., "Who's to Blame? Counterfactual Reasoning and the Assignment of Blame", Psychology and Marketing, Vol.14, No.3, (May 1997), pp.209-307; Zeelenberg, M., van Dijk, W.W., van der Plight, J., Manstead, A.S.R., van Empelen, P., & Reinderman, D., "Emotional Reactions to the Outcomes of Decisions: The Role of Counterfactual Thought in the Experience of Regret and Disappointment", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol.75, No.2, (August 1998), pp.117-141; Naquin, C.E. & Tynan, R.O., "The Team Halo Effect: Why Teams Are Not Blamed for Their Failures", Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol.88, No.2, (April 2003), pp.332-340; Naquin, C.E., "The Agony of Opportunity in Negotiation: Number of Negotiable Issues, Counterfactual Thinking, and Feelings of Satisfaction", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol.91, No.1, (May 2003), pp.97-107, and many others.
^ Hetts, J.J., Boninger, D.S., Armor, D.A., Gleicher, F. & Nathanson, A., "The Influence of Anticipated Counterfactual Regret on Behavior", Psychology & Marketing, Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp.345-368; Landman, J. & Petty, R., ""It Could Have Been You": How States Exploit Counterfactual Thought to Market Lotteries", Psychology & Marketing, Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp.299-321; McGill, A.L., "Counterfactual Reasoning in Causal Judgements: Implications for Marketing", Psychology & Marketing, Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp.323-343; Roese, N.J., "Counterfactual Thinking and Marketing: Introduction to the Special Issue", Psychology & Marketing', Vol.17, No.4, (April 2000), pp.277-280; Walchli, S.B. & Landman, J., "Effects of Counterfactual Thought on Postpurchase Consumer Affect", Psychology & Marketing, Vol.20, No.1, (January 2003), pp.23-46, and so on.
^ Randerson, J., "Fast action would have saved millions", New Scientist, Vol.176, No.2372, (7 December 2002), p.19; Haydon, D.T., Chase-Topping, M., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Friar, J.Okay., Wilesmith, J. & Woolhouse, M.E.J., "The Construction and Analysis of Epidemic Trees With Reference to the 2001 UK Foot-and-Mouth Outbreak", Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences, Vol.270, No.1511, (22 January 2003), pp.121-127, and so on.
^ Goodman's original idea has been due to this fact evolved and expanded by way of (a) Daniel Cohen (Cohen, D., "Semifactuals, Even-Ifs, and Sufficiency", International Logic Review, Vol.16, (1985), pp.102-111), (b) Stephen Barker (Barker, S., "Even, Still and Counterfactuals", Linguistics and Philosophy, Vol.14, No.1, (February 1991), pp.1-38; Barker, S., "Counterfactuals, Probabilistic Counterfactuals and Causation", Mind, Vol.108, No.431, (July 1999), pp.427-469), and (c) Rachel McCloy and Ruth Byrne (McCloy, R. & Byrne, R.M.J., "Semifactual 'Even If' Thinking", Thinking and Reasoning, Vol.8, No.1, (February 2002), pp.41-67).
^ a b Taken from Yeates, 2004, p.145.
^ Sarewitz, D. & Pielke, R., "Prediction in Science and Policy", Technology in Society, Vol.21, No.2, (April 1999), pp.121-133.
^ Nowcasting (obviously in line with forecasting) is also known as very-short-term forecasting; thus, additionally indicating a very-short-term, mid-range, and long-range forecasting continuum.
^ Browning, Okay.A. (ed.), Nowcasting, Academic Press, (London), 1982.
^ Murphy, and Brown — Murphy, A.H. & Brown, B.G., "Similarity and Analogical Reasoning: A Synthesis", pp.3-15 in Browning, K.A. (ed.),
Nowcasting, Academic Press, (London), 1982 — describe a large range of explicit programs for meteorological nowcasting over wide range of user demands:
(1) Agriculture: (a) wind and precipitation forecasts for effective seeding and spraying from plane; (b) precipitation forecasts to minimize damage to seedlings; (c) minimum temperature, dewpoint, cloud quilt, and wind pace forecasts to protect crops from frost; (d) most temperature forecasts to scale back hostile effects of prime temperatures on plants and livestock; (e) humidity and cloud quilt forecasts to forestall fungal illness crop losses ; (f) hail forecasts to reduce injury to livestock and greenhouses; (g) precipitation, temperature, and dewpoint
forecasts to steer clear of during- and after-harvest losses due to crops rotting in the field; (h) precipitation forecasts to reduce losses in drying raisins; and (i) humidity forecasts to cut back costs and losses resulting from poor conditions for drying tobacco.
(2) Construction: (a) precipitation and wind velocity forecasts to avoid harm to finished paintings (e.g. concrete) and minimize costs of shielding uncovered surfaces, buildings, and work websites; and (b) precipitation, wind velocity, and top/low temperature forecasts to schedule paintings in an effective manner.
(3) Energy: (a) temperature, humidity, wind, cloud, and so on. forecasts to optimize procedures related to era and distribution of electricity and gas; (b) forecasts of thunderstorms, robust winds, low temperatures, and freezing precipitation reduce damage to traces and kit and
to agenda repairs.
(4) Transportation: (a) ceiling height and visibility, winds and turbulence, and surface ice and snow forecasts decrease possibility, maximize potency in pre-flight and in-flight selections and different changes to weather-related fluctuations in visitors; (b) forecasts of wind speed and route, in addition to severe weather and icing conditions along flight paths facilitate optimum airline path making plans; (c) forecasts of snowstorm, precipitation, and different storm-related events allow truckers, motorists, and public transportation systems to avoid damage to weather-sensitive items, make a choice optimum routes, save you accidents, minimize delays, and maximize revenues beneath stipulations of inauspicious climate.
(5) Public Safety & General Public: (a) rain, snow, wind, and temperature forecasts help the general public in planning activities equivalent to commuting, sport, and buying groceries; (b) forecasts of temperature/humidity extremes (or important changes) alert hospitals, clinics, and the general public to weather conditions that may seriously worsen positive health-related illnesses; (c) forecasts related to potentially dangerous or harmful natural occasions (e.g., tornados, severe thunderstorms, serious winds, typhoon surges, avalanches, precipitation, floods) reduce loss of lifestyles and assets injury; and (d) forecasts of snowstorms, surface icing, visibility, and different events (e.g. floods) allow freeway maintenance and site visitors keep an eye on organizations to take appropriate movements to scale back dangers of visitors injuries and protect roads from harm.
^ Chen, D., Cane, M.A., Kaplan, A., Zebiak, S.E. & Huang, D., "Predictability of El Niño Over the Past 148 Years", Nature, Vol.428, No.6984, (15 April 2004), pp.733-736; Anderson, D., "Testing Time for El Niño", Nature, Vol.428, No.6984, (15 April 2004), pp.709, 711.
^ Not most effective did their hindcasting reveal that the automatic simulation models could are expecting the onset of El Niño climatic occasions from adjustments within the temperature of the ocean's floor temperature that happen up to two years previous — meaning that there was once now, probably, at least 2 years' lead time — however the results additionally implied that El Niño occasions seemed to be the results of a few causal regularity; and, subsequently, weren't due to easy probability.
^ Taken from Yeates, 2004, p.146.
^ p.24, Einhorn, H.J. & Hogarth, R.M., "Prediction, Diagnosis, and Causal Thinking in Forecasting", Journal of Forecasting, (January–March 1982), Vol.1, No.1, pp.23-36.
^ "…We consider diagnostic inference to be based on causal thinking, although in doing diagnosis one has to mentally reverse the time order in which events were thought to have occurred (hence the term "backward inference"). On the other hand, predictions involve forward inference; i.e., one goes forward in time from present causes to future effects. However, it is important to recognize the dependence of forward inference/prediction on backward inference/diagnosis. In particular, it seems likely that success in predicting the future depends to a considerable degree on making sense of the past. Therefore, people are continually engaged in shifting between forward and backward inference in both making and evaluating forecasts. Indeed, this can be eloquently summarized by Kierkegaard's observation that, 'Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards' …"(Einhorn & Hogarth, 1982, p.24).
^ Taken from Yeates, 2004, p.147.
^ See Robinson, J.B., "Energy Backcasting: A Proposed Method of Policy Analysis", Energy Policy, Vol.10, No.4 (December 1982), pp.337-345; Robinson, J.B., "Unlearning and Backcasting: Rethinking Some of the Questions We Ask About the Future", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.33, No.4, (July 1988), pp.325-338; Robinson, J., "Future Subjunctive: Backcasting as Social Learning", Futures, Vol.35, No.8, (October 2003), pp.839-856.
^ Robinson's backcasting way is similar to the anticipatory eventualities of Ducot and Lubben (Ducot, C. & Lubben, G.J., "A Typology for Scenarios", Futures, Vol.11, No.1, (February 1980), pp.51-57), and Bunn and Salo (Bunn, D.W. & Salo, A.A., "Forecasting with scenarios", European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.68, No.3, (13 August 1993), pp.291-303).
^ p.814, Dreborg, Okay.H., "Essence of Backcasting", Futures, Vol.28, No.9, (November 1996), pp.813-828.
^ Jansen, L., "Towards a Sustainable Future, en route with Technology", pp.496-525 in Dutch Committee for Long-Term Environmental Policy (ed.), The Environment: Towards a Sustainable Future (Environment & Policy, Volume 1), Kluwer Academic Publishers, (Dortrecht), 1994.
^ Plato. Rep. vii, I–III, 514–518B.
^ Seyyed Hossein Nasr and Oliver Leaman (1996), History of Islamic Philosophy, p. 315, Routledge, ISBN 0-415-13159-6.
^ a b c Gualeni, Stefano (2015). Virtual Worlds as Philosophical Tools: How to Philosophize with a Digital Hammer. Basingstoke (UK): Palgrave MacMillan. ISBN 978-1-137-52178-1.
^ a b Gualeni, Stefano (2016). "Self-reflexive videogames: observations and corollaries on virtual worlds as philosophical artifacts". G a M e, the Italian Journal of Game Studies. 1, 5.
^ Yeates, 2004, pp.138-143.
^ Catholic Encyclopedia (1913)/Pandects "every logical rule of law is capable of illumination from the law of the Pandects."
^ Jaynes, E.T. (1989).Clearing up the Mysteries, opening communicate on the 8th International MAXENT Workshop, St John's College, Cambridge UK.
^ French, A.P., Taylor, E.F. (1979/1989). An Introduction to Quantum Physics, Van Nostrand Reinhold (International), London, ISBN 0-442-30770-5.
^ Wheeler, J.A, Zurek, W.H., editors (1983). Quantum Theory and Measurement, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
^ d'Espagnat, B. (2006). On Physics and Philosophy, Princeton University Press, Princeton, ISBN 978-0-691-11964-9
^ While the issue offered on this quick tale's situation isn't distinctive, it is extremely unusual. Most concept experiments are intentionally (or, even, on occasion by accident) skewed towards the inevitable manufacturing of a selected method to the issue posed; and this occurs on account of the way that the problem and the scenario are framed in the first position. In the case of The Lady, or the Tiger?, the way that the tale unfolds is so "end-neutral" that, at the finish, there's no "correct" strategy to the issue. Therefore, all that one can do is to supply one's personal innermost ideas on how the account of human nature that has been presented might unfold – in step with one's personal experience of human nature – which is, obviously, the aim of the entire workout. The extent to which the tale can provoke such an extremely wide range of (another way equipollent) predictions of the participants' next behaviour is likely one of the reasons the story has been so widespread over time.
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Kuhn, T., "A Function for Thought Experiments", in The Essential Tension (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1979), pp. 240–
Mach, E., "On Thought Experiments", pp. 134–147 in Mach, E., Knowledge and Error: Sketches on the Psychology of Enquiry, D. Reidel Publishing Co., (Dordrecht), 1976. [Translation of Erkenntnis und Irrtum (5th edition, 1926.].
Popper, Okay., "On the Use and Misuse of Imaginary Experiments, Especially in Quantum Theory", pp. 442–456, in Popper, K., The Logic of Scientific Discovery, Harper Torchbooks, (New York), 1968.
Witt-Hansen, J., "H.C. Ørsted, Immanuel Kant and the Thought Experiment", Danish Yearbook of Philosophy, Vol.13, (1976), pp. 48–65.
Adams, Scott, God's Debris: A Thought Experiment, Andrews McMeel Publishing, (USA), 2001
Browning, Okay.A. (ed.), Nowcasting, Academic Press, (London), 1982.
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Cohen, Martin, "Wittgenstein's Beetle and Other Classic Thought Experiments", Blackwell (Oxford) 2005
Cohnitz, D., Gedankenexperimente in der Philosophie, Mentis Publ., (Paderborn, Germany), 2006.
Craik, Ok.J.W., The Nature of Explanation, Cambridge University Press, (Cambridge), 1943.
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DePaul, M. & Ramsey, W. (eds.), Rethinking Intuition: The Psychology of Intuition and Its Role in Philosophical Inquiry, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, (Lanham), 1998.
Gendler, T.S., Thought Experiment: On the Powers and Limits of Imaginary Cases, Garland, (New York), 2000.
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Harper, W.L., Stalnaker, R. & Pearce, G. (eds.), Ifs: Conditionals, Belief, Decision, Chance, and Time, D. Reidel Publishing Co., (Dordrecht), 1981.
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Wilkes, Ok.V., Real People: Personal Identity without Thought Experiments, Oxford University Press, (Oxford), 1988.
Yeates, L.B., Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach, Graduate Diploma in Arts (By Research) Dissertation, University of New South Wales, 2004.
Look up δείκνυμι in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.
Look up concept experiment, Gedankenexperiment, or gedankenexperiment in Wiktionary, the loose dictionary.Thought experiment at PhilPapers
Thought experiment at the Indiana Philosophy Ontology Project
Philosophy Bites podcast: Nigel Warburton interviews Julian Baggini on Thought Experiments
Stevinus, Galileo, and Thought Experiments Short essay by S. Abbas Raza of three Quarks Daily
Thought experiment generator, an entertaining visual aid to operating your personal idea experiment
Articles on Thought Experiments within the PhilSci Archive, an digital archive for preprints within the philosophy of science.
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